Apple analyst says Apple won’t budge on iPhone manufacturing despite Trump’s 25% tariff threat

As political winds shift and former President Donald Trump renews demands for U.S.-based iPhone production, Apple is unlikely to change course. According to noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the tech giant would rather absorb the sting of a 25% import tax than attempt to uproot and recreate its vast manufacturing empire in the United States.

Kuo shared his insights on X, suggesting that Apple’s complex, Asia-centered supply chain is too established and too efficient to abandon—even in the face of growing political pressure. His comments follow Trump’s latest social media post warning that iPhones made outside the U.S. could soon be hit with steep tariffs.

For Apple, the stakes are high. The company is in the midst of a major manufacturing transition, gradually shifting assembly of iPhones for the American market to India. That move, initially spurred by geopolitical tensions and the need to diversify away from China, now risks becoming a flashpoint in U.S. trade policy.

Trump’s post specifically targeted Apple CEO Tim Cook, stating that iPhones sold in the United States should be built within U.S. borders—or else face a punitive tariff of “at least 25%.” The former president’s remarks caused Apple’s stock to dip 3% in pre-market trading, as investors weighed the potential fallout.

But Kuo’s assessment highlights just how unrealistic a U.S. manufacturing shift would be. Apple’s partners—like Foxconn—operate massive, custom-built production sites in Asia that are nearly impossible to replicate without years of construction, training, and investment. Analysts have estimated that attempting to build iPhones in the U.S. could raise production costs so dramatically that retail prices might soar above $3,000 per device.

While Apple does utilize some U.S.-made components—such as glass from Corning or chips from stateside fabrication plants—the final assembly of iPhones has always been rooted overseas. Moving that operation to the U.S. wouldn’t just be costly—it would be logistically and operationally disruptive.

At present, Apple has made no public comment on the matter. But with U.S. iPhone sales still exceeding 60 million units annually, Kuo’s stance is clear: enduring a 25% tariff, though painful, is far more manageable than upending one of the most sophisticated manufacturing networks on Earth.

If Trump’s trade position becomes more than rhetoric, Apple may have to do what it does best—innovate, adapt, and keep shipping iPhones, no matter the political forecast.